MARCH TRAINING EVENT: MONTE CARLO COST RISK PROCESS

Project Consultant and Risk Management Joint Venture Project Manager John Hirst led PLP’s March training event on the QCRA process. Here is what he had to tell us about how the event went:

The presentation had one main objective of explaining and demonstrating how the Quantitative Cost Risk Assessment (QCRA) process works. This was broken down into three sub objectives, which were:

  • Explain how psychological/behavioural phenomena can influence risk management
  • Demonstrate a range of risk identification/quantification techniques available to practitioners
  • Perform a simulated outcome based on assessment of uncertainty and specific risk events

The presentation started off by defining key terms to ensure all participants were on the same level. This followed by a replication of a recent psychological experiment demonstrating the effect of sustained in-attentional bias which allowed for some “quick laughter” and “ah hah!” moments to summarise what is an incredibly complex topic of discussion. Then the session went on to perform a number of risk identification techniques which ranged from brain storming, discussion groups, affinity variations and interviews. Afterwards, a group discussion was held to agree on the quantifications of impact and probability. Finally, the simulation was run producing 10,000 outcomes which could be used to draw statistical conclusions and budgetary decisions at a given level of confidence.

The event was exciting to deliver. It is a always a very unique feeling when your in the heart of some engaging activity where the whole group is focussed upon a challenge and trying to build off the last bit of information to move closer towards an agreed optimal outcome. The topic of uncertainty and risk I find very intriguing, and so being able to deliver a presentation and hopefully bring people along on even for a small amount of time is a satisfying outcome.